{"id":441,"date":"2013-01-24T09:42:42","date_gmt":"2013-01-24T09:42:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.goodmanjones.com\/blog\/?p=441"},"modified":"2020-09-08T10:25:00","modified_gmt":"2020-09-08T09:25:00","slug":"inward-investment-affected-by-a-eu-referendum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.goodmanjones.com\/blog\/inward-investment-affected-by-a-eu-referendum\/","title":{"rendered":"Inward Investment – affected by a EU referendum?"},"content":{"rendered":"

David Cameron\u2019s EU referendum proposal<\/a> has put the cat amongst the pigeons, but what real impact is it likely to have on inward investment in the UK?<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve commented previously that the UK is the ideal gateway for business into the European Community.\u00a0 I\u2019ve enumerated the following advantages:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. It\u2019s quick and cheap to set up here<\/li>\n
  2. It\u2019s not within the Eurozone<\/li>\n
  3. Its internationalist outlook \u2013 a polyglot nation if ever there was one<\/li>\n
  4. London\u2019s status as the world\u2019s most important financial centre<\/li>\n
  5. The flexibility of its labour market<\/li>\n
  6. Its business sophistication and innovation<\/li>\n
  7. The dependability of its legal system<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The UK\u2019s pragmatist approach to the EU and its oft-expressed view that the EU\u2019s greatest attribute is the Single Market attracts a substantial level of support from within the EU itself \u2013 one need only read Angela Merkel\u2019s balanced comments<\/a> to realise that even within the Eurozone, there is a recognition, perhaps grudging, that the UK frequently has a point.\u00a0 Amongst non-Euro members of the EU, the UK\u2019s stance that the Single Market is the EU’s primary purpose is well-regarded.<\/p>\n

    The EU currently comprises three distinct groupings \u2013 existing Eurozone countries, countries committed to joining the Eurozone, and those with no such commitment.\u00a0 There are divergent positions within each of these groups.<\/p>\n

    Most obviously, within the Eurozone, there are industrialised successful economies such as Germany and Finland, there are the wannabe\u2019s with varying degrees of problems led by France, and there are the strugglers \u2013 Greece, Spain etc.\u00a0 Concerns about the future of the Eurozone may be making less headline news today than they were last month, but they haven\u2019t gone away.\u00a0\u00a0 Solutions need to be found to tackle mass unemployment in the periphery and a hugely burdensome welfare structure that threatens all.\u00a0 The problems are economic \u2013 the solutions are political. \u00a0That\u2019s seventeen countries attempting to find compromises between each that their political leaders can sell to their own electorates.\u00a0 No-one knows how long it might take, and no-one has a clear idea of what the outcome might look like.\u00a0\u00a0 So if you\u2019re an inward investor, how certain can you be that the location you choose today will still prove to be the right one tomorrow?\u00a0 You can\u2019t.\u00a0 You\u2019ve no real idea what you\u2019ll be getting into.<\/p>\n

    Whatever the compromises Eurozone members conclude between themselves, inevitably they will impact on the EU as a whole.\u00a0 So non-Eurozone members need also to participate in the compromise process. And as the non-Eurozone members are an even more diverse group, what form might those compromises take?\u00a0 What impact might they have on individual states?\u00a0 Will they incline an inward investor toward Bulgaria, perhaps, as opposed to much more highly developed \u00a0– and relatively expensive – Poland?\u00a0 Will either or both be within the Eurozone itself by the time the dust has settled?\u00a0 There are no answers to these questions. \u00a0Uncertainty reigns.<\/p>\n

    Inward investment is by its very nature long-term.\u00a0 The rationale for it must always be economic, and that requires there to be a degree of certainty about the longer term.\u00a0 One could surmise that in the longer term the Eurozone will become the EU, but that\u2019s simply not going to happen within any reasonable estimate of what might be a foreseeable timescale.\u00a0 It is inconceivable that either Denmark or the UK \u2013 the two countries not committed to ever join the single currency \u2013 would choose to do so in the next 10 to 15 years just as it\u2019s inconceivable the other EU members could eject them from the EU against their wishes.<\/p>\n

    So to come back to the original question, what real impact is the promise of a referendum on a renegotiated membership terms likely to have on inward investment in the UK?<\/p>\n

    It\u2019s worth bearing in mind Stephanie Flanders\u2019 recent post<\/a>.\u00a0 Currently Germany\u2019s largest trading partner is the UK \u2013 not a relationship either Germany or the UK would want to lose.\u00a0 Given Germany\u2019s status within the EU and its role as paymaster for the ills of the Eurozone, it will ensure such steps are taken as are necessary to enable a future Conservative government to present a renegotiated treaty to a referendum.\u00a0 A referendum to either continue with the known, but on better terms, or to step into the unknown.\u00a0 It would be a seriously failed government, supported as it would be by all but the foaming at the mouth diehards, that couldn\u2019t sell that to the UK population.<\/p>\n

    So \u2013 the conclusions I reached in my earlier posts remain the same \u2013 the UK is still the gateway to Europe.\u00a0\u00a0 The pigeons were there anyway, squabbling as per usual – all Cameron\u2019s done is to place the cat needed to give them a fright.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    David Cameron\u2019s EU referendum proposal has put the cat amongst the pigeons, but what real impact is it likely to have on inward investment in the UK? I\u2019ve commented previously that the UK is the ideal gateway for business into the European Community.\u00a0 I\u2019ve enumerated the following advantages: It\u2019s quick and cheap to set up[…] <\/p>\n

    Read More<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[190,388,389,375,189,390,387,169],"class_list":["post-441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-international","tag-eu","tag-eu-referendum","tag-euro","tag-europe","tag-eurozone","tag-investment","tag-inward-investement","tag-uk"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nInward Investment - affected by a EU referendum?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inward Investment - affected by a EU referendum?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"David Cameron\u2019s EU referendum proposal has put the cat amongst the pigeons, but what real impact is it likely to have on inward investment in the UK? 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